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Six Lessons from South Carolina
- 23 January 2012
- 3:22 GMT
- Comments (6)
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By Steve Deace
What lessons did we learn from the crucial South Carolina primary held over the weekend?
1. The results were a complete and total repudiation of the Republican Party establishment, and its proxy Mitt Romney.
Grassroots conservatives despise the Republicrat establishment almost as much as they do President Obama and the Left, and in South Carolina that frustration was vented through Newt Gingrich’s resounding victory. Despite all the so-called “conservative” talking heads on television completely in the tank for Mitt Romney and the momentum Romney had coming off a decisive victory in New Hampshire, the only block of voters Romney won in South Carolina were wealthy voters who described themselves as “moderate” or “liberal.” Every type of conservative voter in South Carolina rejected Romney and the Republicrat establishment he represents in every one of the state’s congressional districts. Should the Republicrat establishment now do what those in the opinion elite are anticipating by pulling out all the stops to stop Newt Gingrich, they may just recreate the same backlash in Florida that went against them in South Carolina, because conservatives flat-out loathe their own party pooh-bahs. That potential backlash could be why Jeb Bush, considered the smartest of the Bush brothers, has chosen not to endorse Romney after all.
2. Newt Gingrich emerged as the “not Romney” candidate by becoming the champion conservatives have been waiting for.
The biggest reason for the “flavor of the month” pattern that has played out throughout this primary process is because conservatives were looking for the candidate they thought they could trust to confront the ruling class and the media on their behalf. Gingrich’s willingness to fill that void on such a public stage in the debates at a time when his political future was at stake, sealed the deal with conservatives that he was the champion they’ve been waiting for.
3. Nikki Haley and Jim DeMint lack clout.
South Carolina’s Sarah Palin-wannabe governor endorsed Romney just as he was soaring in New Hampshire, but not even the state’s alleged Tea Party princess could stop Romney from soundly losing the Tea Party vote on Saturday. DeMint endorsed Romney four years ago when Romney finished fourth, and didn’t endorse Romney this time, but several of his staffers did and DeMint has defended Romney from conservative criticism in the media for years. DeMint also publicly called on Gingrich to tone down his criticisms of Romney. Obviously, South Carolina conservatives think for themselves.
4. Some big-name Christian “leaders” lack clout.
South Carolina is one of the most evangelical-heavy states on the primary calendar, and a slew of Christian “leaders” supposedly decided to coalesce behind Rick Santorum during a highly-publicized “confidential” meeting held in Texas the week before the Palmetto State primary. This coalescing resulted in Santorum losing the Catholic vote, and even worse inexplicably finishing behind Romney for third place among evangelical voters. If these leaders don’t have the clout (or capability or willingness) to lift Santorum back into the race in South Carolina, then they probably don’t anywhere.
5. Romney’s coronation is over.
Not only is Romney’s inevitable path to the nomination no longer inevitable, but if he loses Florida on January 31st it’s difficult to envision a scenario in which he ends up with the 1144 delegates necessary to clinch the nomination prior to the convention. Heck, it’s tough to map out how Romney accomplishes that even if he wins Florida. Regardless, Romney is now facing the same must-win situation in Florida that Gingrich was facing in South Carolina. He’s been running for the presidency non-stop for five years, so given the fortune he’s invested in this already rest assured he will pull out every stop, grease any potential endorsee’s pal, and tell every lie it takes to win Florida.
6. Ron Paul is still a fringe candidate.
After top three finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, Paul took his neo-confederate philosophy of governance down south expecting a friendly reception. But without the influx of Democrat and independent voters we saw in the first two contests, Paul instead finished a distant fourth among the evangelicals and Tea Party voters that populate the bulk of the GOP base in South Carolina and most other places—which is why he finished fourth overall in the primary. South Carolina proved Paul is a fringe candidate that minus heavy doses of independents and Democrats invading the primary has little relevance in the broader GOP. In the future his successors (like his son Rand) will either need to prune his message to the best of his points and let the more libertarian stuff fall by the wayside, or go third party.
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