Morning Briefing: October 5th, 2012
By Steve Deace
Pre-Debate Look at the Race
Two weeks ago, we shared some polling from Republican pollster Gabriel Joseph, who polls cell phone users exclusively across the country and uses a polling sample much less weighted towards Democrats than the mainstream media does. Prior to the dominant debate performance by Mitt Romney on Wednesday, here’s where Joseph had the race in polling through October 1st:
National: Obama 46, Romney 40
Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 41%
Florida: Obama 51%, Romney 36%
Iowa: Obama 43%, Romney 40%
Michigan: Obama 51%, Romney 34%
North Carolina: Romney 44%, Obama 42%
New Hampshire: Obama 46%, Romney 39%
Nevada: Obama 45%, Romney 41%
Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 40%
Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 40%
Wisconsin: Obama 43%, Romney 43%
Was Romney’s performance enough to alter Obama’s momentum in these numbers? I think so, it’s just a matter of how much. In 2004, George W. Bush led John Kerry by 6 points in the Real Clear Politics polling average heading into the first debate on September 30th. Kerry soundly defeated Bush in that debate, and within five days the polls showed the race tied. Bush eventually won, but by the thinnest of margins thanks to Ohio, where the 2012 race will be decided as well.
Already on Intrade, Obama has seen his percentage likelihood of being re-elected drop from 75% prior to the debate to 66% as of Thursday night.
Remember in the debate when Obama kept going after Romney for creating a $5 trillion hole in the deficit with his economic plan, and Romney kept saying that’s not a part of his plan? It turns out Romney was correct. Obama Deputy Campaign Manager Stephanie Cutter was forced to admit on CNN that attack on Romney by Obama is not true. Also, after Obama mysteriously failed to bring up Romney’s infamous “47%” remarks at the debate which his campaign has been hammering him with in recent television ads, Romney has now walked those comments back as “wrong” on Fox News. Which is a pretty good preemptive strike against the likelihood Obama would want to make them the centerpiece of the next debate on October 16th.
We Don’t Care if You’re Offended
That’s the message one patriot is giving Islamic extremists in a video that is going viral thanks to the folks at Clash Daily.
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