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Steve Deace > News > 2012 Iowa Caucuses > Iowa Caucus Winners and Losers

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Iowa Caucus Winners and Losers

by Jen Green

Winners

Rick Santorum

It’s after midnight as I type this, and we don’t know yet if Santorum has actually pulled out the win–it’s looking like Romney by 14. Apparently, some votes are lost out on the road somewhere. Regardless, this is a win for the former Pennsylvania senator. He worked hard, shook a lot of hands, answered a lot of questions, and practically lived in Iowa for the last six months. He was at single digits in the polls until two weeks ago. He did it “old school,” and in the end, 25% of Iowa caucus-goers thought that was worth their vote. The media has already started the “he can’t win” mantra, but he will get a hands-up “Iowa boost” as he heads into New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Mitt Romney

The media is calling it a “targeted” approach, but let’s face it, Romney wasn’t making a play for Iowa until he sensed the ridiculously fractured base and the blood in the water. In the end, it was enough to get him the exact same 25% of the vote he got four years ago. No significant change . . . after four years of running. The only thing “reaffirmed” last night is that Romney can get one of our four Repubs to vote for him . . . after four years of running. Oh, and with John McCain’s upcoming endorsement/cry-for-relevance, he’ll “reaffirm” his RINO status.

Bob Vander Plaats/the Family Leader

After a crazy-long, much ballyhooed ordeal, Bob Vander Plaats and Chuck Hurley of Iowa’s largest pro-family group The Family Leader finally chose to endorse a candidate. They chose the guy who was at single-digits in the race, but who had signed their marriage pledge. It was the right choice ethically and the safe choice politically. And now, that “safe” choice turns out to be a brilliant one. For now and the foreseeable future, Vander Plaat’s endorsement and good graces will be much sought after here in the state of Iowa and perhaps beyond. What changed for Rick Santorum just before his rise in the polls? He got the nod from Iowa’s well-respected secretary of state Matt Schultz and Vander Plaats.

Iowa GOP party

Until the hold up with the votes from the last two precincts, the caucuses went off without a hitch. Great weather led to record attendance (just a bit over 2008 total of 120,000) which led to an exciting photo-finish. All that and the OWS crowd did nothing to dampen the mood.

Holding Steady

Mitt Romney

As I said, same 25%. One in four. Three in four want anyone but him.

Newt Gingrich

After imploding almost right out of the gate, rising like a rocket again, then falling back down to single digits, Newt Gingrich finished fourth in last night’s three man race. It keeps him alive as he goes swinging into New Hampshire, where he has already started running attack ads versus Romney. Look for he and Santorum to be very non-agressive toward each other as they work to tear down Mitt.

Losers

Mitt Romney

One in four. See above two sections.

Ron Paul

No matter how they spin it, the Ron Paul campaign wanted and expected a top finish in the Iowa caucuses—certainly a top two finish. He spent more time, money, and grassroots effort in this state than any other candidate. The fact they could not even deliver Story and Johnson counties where Iowa’s universities are, is a huge disappointment. He may do “okay” in New Hampshire, but he’s got little chance in South Carolina and Florida.

Michele Bachmann

In the interest of full disclosure, my family supported Michele Bachmann. We really like her personally, we love her record, her testimony, and her worldview. In the end, however, none of those were enough to overcome a campaign in disarray and a stilted message. In her speech last night, she sounded resolute to move forward to South Carolina—at virtually the same time, her campaign manager was saying she “might drop out.” His message changed a bit later. Unfortunately, that is a ‘nutshell’ to her campaign since the straw poll. She is an amazing woman and still one of my political heroes. I pray she continues to let God use her in the future. That being said, I think it’s time for her to leave the race.

Rick Perry

He faltered out of the gate, had one of the most notorious moments in presidential debate history, spent a LOT of money trying to reshape his image in Iowa only to finish a very disappointing fifth. Perry says he will “re-evaluate,” which means he’s done.

Tea Party

The first votes in the 2012 presidential race after the formation of the tea party and the “historic” election of 2010 has netted us . . . Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. NOT tea party candidates.

 

 

 

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Joel-Kurtinitis/207304484 Joel Kurtinitis

    Congrats to Romney and Santorum.  It’s bittersweet for us as Paul fans.  On one hand, it wasn’t long ago that a top finish in Iowa seemed out of reach completely, and it looked like a repeat of 2008.  On the other hand, it was straight-up depressing to see the lengths that the republican establishment went to, to bombshell us.  Branstad, King, Gingrich, Santorum, and the MSM reserved a special type of vitriol both for Ron and those of us who support him.  ”Crazy”, “dangerous”, “disgusting”, “ignore my state if Ron Paul wins…”, “I could support anyone else as the nominee, but not Paul…”  We failed to gain even the common courtesy shown to sellouts like Romney.
    I would be more upset over it if I weren’t sure of three things:  
    1)  The delegate count will likely not reflect the popular vote.
    2)  Establishment opposition just fuels our fire, as Deace has noted before.  
    3)  The age breakdown is very promising for the future of the liberty movement.  Paul took over half of the total 17-25 vote and a large chunk of the 25-35 vote as well. There’s a new party on the horizon.

    • Anonymous

      “The age breakdown is very promising for the future of the liberty movement.” – - so is the fact that members of our military donate 1 of every 2 dollars to the Paul campaign – over every other candidate! 

    • Anonymous

      I find it interesting that Paul wins by large numbers all these online polls – like Drudge had with over 31% of Iowa voters going to Paul – and yet he doesn’t win when it comes to actually counting actual votes from actual people.

      It is also interesting that Paul followers always dump on other people for bad mouthing him when in fact Paul gives them plenty to bad mouth him about. That would be like Gingrich supporters being mad because people bring up his three marriages or sitting with a idiot like Nancy on a couch. Only difference is that Gingrich admits when he says or does something stupid, Paul won’t.

      • Me

        “I find it interesting that Paul wins by large numbers all these online
        polls – like Drudge had with over 31% of Iowa voters going to Paul – and
        yet he doesn’t win when it comes to actually counting actual votes from
        actual people.”

        I find this to be trolling, but if you aren’t trolling I can explain online polling to you =P

        I would just like to say that I have never “dumped” on people for badmouthing Paul when they weren’t lying. You can disagree with his positions, but don’t lie about his positions.

        And as far as “Only difference is that Gingrich admits when he says or does something stupid, Paul won’t” goes, Gingrich only admits to some things and for Paul the late night talk show thing was a mistake, other than that you have yet to prove that Paul was/is wrong on anything. (That was not dumping)

        • Anonymous

          No I’m not a troll. Well some people might disagree…  You really don’t need to explain the online stuff, it the same thing 4 years ago when Fox had this texting thing to see who was winning the debates and Paul always came in at 60% or some silly thing like that. I just think his appeal is overblown, and is probably the reason his campaign refused to say how many offices he had open here and how many volunteers, etc.

          So when Paul says he thinks our own government could be behind the twin towers coming down, isn’t that a little bit corny? Isn’t it a little bit of a stretch to say it was his news letter but he didn’t know what was in it? Isn’t it a little bit crazy that it doesn’t bother him that a nut case of the leader of a Muslim country wants to destroy Israel and the United States and Paul says “Why not let them have the bomb?”  You say other countries have the bomb, yeah and they don’t go around saying they want to destroy Israel. 

          Do I agree with him that government is too big YES. But other people say that and yet don’t believe some of the corny things that Paul does. I have said over and over, put him in as Treasurer Secretary.. 

          • Me

            We all know online polls are nonscientific, the whole point of spamming them was to get attention… even bad attention…

            I have never once seen a link or a reference that confirms your Twin Towers conspiracy theory accusation, by all means provide it if its true, if not drop it. As Iran, it is FAR overblown, if you listen to the intelligence concerning Iran they are not an imminent threat even the head of Mossad (Israeli Intelligence) isn’t worried. We should NOT be the world’s police, all you have to do is look at history to know that in the end it will be the end of our freedoms (this is occurring already with the PATRIOT Act and the NDAA) and the nation (look at the fall of the Roman Republic and Empire, we are on the same path). And don’t forget we aren’t the only military in the world, if Israel is worried about Iran they are more than capable to take care of it.

            If you are actually concerned about the affairs of the middle east perhaps you should listen to the reports and intel concerning 9/11 and the motivations behind it. The 9/11 Commission and the CIA have publicly stated that the motivation was due to the U.S. meddling in the affairs of the middle east. (That is not to say we “caused it” it just says that our actions pissed them off. Think what people would do if China started setting up military bases in the U.S, we would be pissed to and take action, its common freaking sense) We would be FAR safer letting the middle east worry about the middle east. I would say that Paul’s sane considering everything that the intelligence community has provided.

            What scares me is Santorum’s constant willingness to start a war tomorrow and I’d wager my next paycheck that he would do it without a congressional declaration. At least the others are slightly more pragmatic about it.

            We should be FAR more worried about what our government is doing then what a nation half way around the world is doing. Our rights are being pissed away by these bastards that don’t honor their oath of office. You, I, basically anyone can now be detained indefinitely with out charge or trial and no way to contest/appeal it.

            “If Tyranny and
            Oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign
            enemy.”
            -James Madison

            Hey look, he was right.

          • Anonymous

            Spamming, right – that is the a good analogy of Ron Paul followers (lot of them not all).

             ”When Al- Qaeda attacked our country on 9-11, Ron Paul told us the CIA
            was behind it. And that Bush and Cheney knew about the attack in
            advance.” That is a quote from ex-Ron Paul staffer and confidant Eric
            Dondero about Ron Paul. Eric called Paul ”the original 9-11 truther”.

            In Ames Iowa Paul said that Bush was pretty happy about the terrorist attacks on Sept 11 – “there was glee in the administration”

            Good grief, I could go on and on. If you haven’t seen at least some of this you aren’t looking very hard, and why would you?

            Iran having a nuke overblown?? They are frantically trying to make one and the reason they are is not a secret, their leader says it all the time. And you actually believe that Israel intelligence is not worried about Iran’s ability to get the bomb? What are you reading Ron Paul’s news letters?

            Ok right listen to people who say it is our own fault that we got attacked, again what are you reading? The enemy of Israel is our enemy, or it better be.

            Now, I will agree with you about our rights. That is why I think that Gingrich hits the nail on the head with his view of the error of judicial supremacy and we have to get back to the courts being the weakest part of the three branches. 

          • Me

            “Spamming, right – that is the a good analogy of Ron Paul followers (lot of them not all)”

            The same could be said of the haters.

            As for Eric Dondero Rittberg, I don’t consider hearsay from an employee that was fired to be reliable without actual evidence.

            “In Ames Iowa Paul said that Bush was pretty happy about the terrorist
            attacks on Sept 11 – “there was glee in the administration”"

            If it happened like that I missed it. Must have been either when I went to the bathroom or said screw it.

            My father said before Bush was elected that he would be looking for a reason to go back to Iraq. And 9/11 was ultimately used for that, remember, al queda and WMDs were there, oh wait, no they weren’t…..

            Ok so that “not worried” thing is a minor exaggeration on my part.

            http://www.eurasiareview.com/30122011-mossad-chief-nuclear-armed-iran-not-existential-threat-to-israel-oped/

            It has been reported in several other publications as well.

            Iran could have a nuke tomorrow if they wanted one; all they have to do is ask Russia who has stated that if the US were to attack Iran they would defend Iran.

            I have no interest in WWII, because some idiot in the white house has an itchy trigger finger. If CONGRESS declares war so be it.

            “Ok right listen to people who say it is our own fault that we got attacked, again what are you reading? ”

            You are really dense aren’t you. The 9/11 Commission, the CIA, and Paul have NEVER said it was “our fault”. BLOWBACK (an actual term used by the intelligence community) does NOT make their actions our fault. I means that their actions were motivated by our actions (I gave a nice little example that you completely ignored). ONLY the people that committed the travesty by action, funding or support are guilty of the attack, but it is asinine to think that that our actions don’t have consequences. Once again its COMMON FREAKING SENSE.

            “The enemy of Israel is our enemy, or it better be.”

            I’m not arguing the fact, but another Iraq (war based on lies) is bullcrap. IF CONGRESS thinks there is sufficient evidence that Iran is a threat and we should go to war, fine, it’s their job to declare it, otherwise we stay here it’s not that complicated. Even FDR got an official declaration of war from CONGRESS. And IF we go to war it should be a true war, none of this we rebuild their nation after the fact crap, if they deserve to be attacked they should pay to rebuild NOT the American tax payer. And reparations should be made to the victor aka spoils to pay for the war.

            “That is why I think that Gingrich hits the nail on the head with his
            view of the error of judicial supremacy and we have to get back to the
            courts being the weakest part of the three branches.”

            Agreed, BUT you must have missed the part where he would take it to another extreme and give the executive supreme power…. He said in the debates that the PATRIOT act needed to be expanded, well, he got his wish in the NDAA.

          • Anonymous

            Yes I might be dense but I’m not stupid, I listened to the debates 4 years ago when Paul said it was our fault.

            I appreciate your desire to blindly follow Paul even though I think he would be so dangerous because he thinks if we bring every solder home no one will bother us again. But since Paul is gone from Iowa and will soon falter away I am going to use my time to promote who I think will actually get this country back to where it should be without going wacky about everything else. Thanks for your time Me.

          • Me

            “Yes I might be dense but I’m not stupid, I listened to the debates 4 years ago when Paul said it was our fault.”

            Yeah, that is not what he said, he directly referenced the 9/11 Commission report concerning blowback. And his statement was in the context of blowback.

            I blindly follow no one.

            I think a dictator or warmonger is far more dangerous than someone that would actually follow the Constitution.

            Good luck getting your choice of Constitution scraping nominee.

            Thanks for the debates, they have been spirited.

  • Me

    As a Constitutionalist and Social Conservative, I find it extremely depressing to see so many people vote for the liberal (Romney) and a man who has repeatedly voted against the Constitution (Santorum). Our nation is in very, very sad shape. People are far to uninformed and uneducated when it comes to the positions of the candidate, the candidates records and the proper role of government.

    • http://www.facebook.com/daveelfers Dave Elfers

      I agree concerning Santorum.  Although his rhetoric today sounds great, he has a history that tastes sour to a liberty-minded Christian like me.  If he wins the nomination and then the presidency I will be left wondering on which issue he will compromise next.

  • Me

    Pretty much agree with Jen’s analysis. If Santorum wants to win it he needs to be on the ground campaigning like he did in Iowa in state (Florida and South Carolina) he can win and not wasting his time in states he has no chance at (New Hampshire).

    I expect the south to stick with Gingrich, either that, or Santorum will pull just enough votes for Romney to pull out a win in states that he shouldn’t.

    And as much as I wanted Paul to win Iowa, the message freedom and returning the government to its Constitutional role is catching on. He more than doubled his 2008 support.

  • Fooled Again

    A predictable effort that conveniently ignores the elephant over there by the divan. Vander Plaats, Sorenson (who somehow is not cited above as one of the biggest, heh, losers) and other self-aggrandizing mercena…er, party enthusiasts too numerous to mention had better get good at schmoozing new ‘friends,’ because it’ll be a cold day in the nether before they get back the ones they bamboozled. The only thing more dangerous than a progressive is someone who changes uniforms in heavy fire.

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