Deace’s 2012 Iowa Caucus Power Rankings
The Iowa Independent has asked me to be one of their anonymous panelists helping to update their rankings of who would win the 2012 Iowa Caucuses if they were held today. I agreed to participate, but I don’t like anonymous.
That’s why each time I submit my rankings I will then post them under my actual name here so you can know exactly what I think and why I think it. Of course, I’ll do so after they post the original story as to not steal their thunder.
Here are my rankings as of March 14th, and please keep in mind this is my analysis not my preference (I do not have a preference at this time):
1. Newt Gingrich
Until a true alternative in the conservative grassroots emerges his name ID, resume, and resources makes him the frontrunner because he’s the easiest candidate for the establishment to rally around.
2. Michelle Bachmann
She’s the candidate positioned the best to emerge as that grassroots alternative by building a winning coalition of Tea Party activists and Christian Conservatives.
3. Tim Pawlenty
Will likely be a lot of people’s second choice which is both good and bad. There certainly isn’t room for both he and fellow Minnesotan Bachmann, who has lot more charisma and a lot higher name ID, at the top of the Iowa power rankings.
4. Herman Cain
Has already assembled some impressive Tea Party grassroots support and shouldn’t be underestimated considering Iowans’ traditional sympathy for Caucus underdogs.
5. Ron Paul
With no fight on the Democrat side, Paul could conceivably get a lot of crossover support from younger, college-aged voters who rally to his libertarian message, especially when it comes to money, deficits, and government spending.
I don’t believe either Sarah Palin or Mike Huckabee are running at this point, so I did not rank them. I also believe that Mitt Romney will put forth a token effort at best in Iowa as well, if anything at all.